China’s defense expenditure over the forecast period, which is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 11.9%.

The Chinese defense industry is controlled by the government, and restrictions on private and foreign companies dampen the competition in the industry. A lack of competition diminishes the need for innovation in defense equipment and related technology advancement. Barring a few industrial enterprises, the majority of organizations fail to compete with each other, which impedes the development of China’s modern indigenous defense industry as there is no incentive for companies to innovate. Furthermore, some of China’s industrial–defense enterprises form business relationships based on long-standing political ties with regions and provinces. As a result, the country fails to gain access to technological innovations and advancements in foreign countries.
A major obstacle to investment in the Chinese defense industry is the arms embargo imposed by the US and other European countries, following the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. During the review period, some European states have proposed the lift of the arms ban, but the US and Japan have opposed this proposal due to fears that it will enable China to enhance its military capabilities. As a result, China’s defense industry is unable to acquire sophisticated military hardware from the US or Western European countries, and this hampers the development of its military–industrial complex.

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